In 2006, the matched internet-panel method produced election forecasts whose average error was substantially less than the average reported telephone poll, mainly because it removed biases better (not because sampling variability was smaller), and Rivers argues telephone polling could be improved by similarly substituting a respondent who resembles the missed person rather than drawing another number from the same skewed population.

causalpending

Speaker

Doug Rivers

Evidence Quote

the main difference was not that the sampling variability which we can estimate was smaller than the telephone poles it was that we had removed the biases better

Source

Doug Rivers on polling 7/21/2008EconTalk
Created: 6/15/2026, 9:28:54 AM

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