Likely the New Hampshire 2008 polling miss came from over-representation of college- and graduate-degree voters (who favored Obama, over-represented by 2-3x and under-corrected) and from unreliable self-reports of voting intention, rather than from racism (the Bradley effect).

causalpending

Speaker

Doug Rivers

Evidence Quote

Obama does very well among people with college degrees and graduate degrees and they are over represented by a factor of two or three typically and not enough weighting is done to correct for that

Source

Doug Rivers on polling 7/21/2008EconTalk
Created: 6/15/2026, 9:28:54 AM

My Notes

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