The convention bounce—a candidate gaining several points (about five per party, net swing ~ten) during/after their party's convention—is partly an artifact of differential response: supporters of the convening party are energized and answer polls while opposition partisans, irritated by the 'phony love fest,' decline to participate, so YouGov controls for prior party identification to neutralize the effect.

causalpending

Speaker

Doug Rivers

Evidence Quote

a lot of the effect comes from the people whose party is having a convention will answer their phone and participate in the poll and the people of the opposite party who are going nuts having to listen to the phony love fest... go on strike

Source

Doug Rivers on polling 7/21/2008EconTalk
Created: 6/15/2026, 9:28:54 AM

My Notes

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