There would seem to be an incentive for a pollster to trust divergent weights and look like a genius (as the lone correct caller of an upset), but in practice small subsamples (e.g. a NH poll with ~100 Republicans) make divergent results look like noise that gets discounted, which is why having 30 polls all wrong in New Hampshire was an extraordinary wake-up call.
causalpending
Speaker
Doug RiversEvidence Quote
“the numbers seemed out of whack and with what everyone else was reporting and it was like well it's you know it's just too small a sample let's ignore it”
Created: 6/15/2026, 9:28:54 AM
My Notes
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