When probabilities cannot be assigned with confidence (a wide band of uncertainty), the standard expected-value approach of multiplying outcomes by probabilities breaks down, so decision-makers may need simplifying rules of thumb instead.
normativepending
Speaker
Cass SunsteinEvidence Quote
“even if you think you should multiply the various outcomes by their probability if you have a wide band we don't know really the probability is very well then you're going to struggle and you might need simplifying rules”
Created: 6/15/2026, 9:17:23 AM
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