In a 2002 study, a crude statistical algorithm using only structural factors (was the government a party, region of origin, whether the lower court was liberal/conservative) predicted Supreme Court justices' affirm/reverse votes better than 83 legal experts, because the experts—though many had clerked on the Court—couldn't bring themselves to weight known patterns heavily enough (e.g., that the Court tends to reverse the Ninth Circuit).
factualpending
Speaker
Ian AyresEvidence Quote
“the statistical algorithm did better than the legal experts and many of these legal experts I mean they'd clerked on the Supreme Court”
Created: 6/17/2026, 10:31:42 AM
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