Final pre-election polls tend to be too similar to each other relative to their known sampling variability, suggesting pollsters herd—choosing among multiple defensible weighting schemes the one that places them in the pack rather than the one that yields a divergent answer—though Rivers attributes this to risk-aversion and the art of weighting rather than dishonesty.

causalpending

Speaker

Doug Rivers

Evidence Quote

people are naturally wish to be similar rather than different

Source

Doug Rivers on polling 7/21/2008EconTalk
Created: 6/15/2026, 9:28:54 AM

My Notes

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