A truly random sample of about 1,000 people gives a margin of error of about plus or minus 3% with 95% confidence regardless of total population size, so a tiny fraction (one in 300,000 Americans) suffices; quadrupling to ~4,000 tightens it to about 1% at 99% confidence.

factualpending

Speaker

Doug Rivers

Evidence Quote

if it's really a random sample of the population a thousand person sample is is good to about plus or minus three percent or a little less

Source

Doug Rivers on polling 7/21/2008EconTalk
Created: 6/15/2026, 9:28:54 AM

My Notes

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