Prediction markets improve on surveys by giving participants an incentive to enter only when they have confidence in their judgment, and by allowing prices to dynamically self-correct over time; at Google, prediction-market prices function as accurate probabilities (events priced at 80% occur about 80% of the time).
factualpending
Speaker
Cass SunsteinEvidence Quote
“if the price suggests that something is 80 percent likely to come true it actually does come true 80 percent of the time that's been Google's track record”
Created: 6/15/2026, 9:20:35 AM
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